The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999

D Herzer, H Strulik, S Vollmer - Journal of Economic Growth, 2012 - Springer
D Herzer, H Strulik, S Vollmer
Journal of Economic Growth, 2012Springer
We examine the long-run relationship between fertility, mortality, and income using panel
cointegration techniques and the available data for the last century. Our main result is that
mortality changes and growth of income contributed to the fertility transition. The fertility
reduction triggered by falling mortality, however, is not enough to overcompensate the
positive effect of falling mortality on population growth. This means that growth of income per
capita is essential to explain the observed secular decline of population growth. These …
Abstract
We examine the long-run relationship between fertility, mortality, and income using panel cointegration techniques and the available data for the last century. Our main result is that mortality changes and growth of income contributed to the fertility transition. The fertility reduction triggered by falling mortality, however, is not enough to overcompensate the positive effect of falling mortality on population growth. This means that growth of income per capita is essential to explain the observed secular decline of population growth. These results are robust to alternative estimation methods, potential outliers, sample selection, different measures of mortality, the sample period, the inclusion of education as an explanatory variable, and the use of different data sets. In addition, our causality tests suggest that fertility changes are both cause and consequence of economic development.
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