A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the
ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm
water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great
uncertainty as to how easily it could occur. Here, we show, using a coupled ice sheet-ocean
model forced by climate change scenarios, that any increase in ice shelf melting is likely to
be preceded by an extended period of reduced melting. Climate change weakens the …