The Middle East is one of the most conflict-prone regions—butwhy? The Collier-Hoeffler
model of civil war provides the starting point for our analysis. In an application to Africa,
Collier and Hoeffler found poverty to be the most significant predictor of conflict. For conflict
in the Middle East, a more complex picture emerges. Consistent with Collier and Hoeffler,
the authors find that economic development and economic growth, in addition to longer
periods of peace, generally decrease the likelihood of conflict. They also find that ethnic …

The Middle East is one of the most conflict-prone regions— butwhy? The Collier-Hoeffler
model of civil war provides the starting point for our analysis. In an application to Africa,
Collier and Hoeffler found poverty to be the most significant predictor of conflict. For conflict
in the Middle East, a more complex picture emerges. Consistent with Collier and Hoeffler,
the authors find that economic development and economic growth, in addition to longer
periods of peace, generally decrease the likelihood of conflict. They also find that ethnic …