Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the
likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control …

One hundred years after the 1918 influenza outbreak, are we ready for the next pandemic?
This paper addresses the need to identify and develop collaborative, interdisciplinary and …

The 1918 influenza pandemic is one of the most devastating infectious disease epidemics
on record, having caused approximately 50 million deaths worldwide. Control measures …

We discuss to what extent disease transmission models provide reliable predictions. The
concept of prediction is delineated as it is understood by modellers, and illustrated by some …

Recent major disease outbreaks, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and foot-and-
mouth disease in the UK, coupled with fears of emergence of human-to-human …

Modern data and computational resources, coupled with algorithmic and theoretical
advances to exploit these, allow disease dynamic models to be parameterised with …

Abstract The World Health Organisation's definition of public health refers to all organized
measures to prevent disease, promote health, and prolong life among the population as a …

The continued growth of the world's population and increased interconnectivity heighten the
risk that infectious diseases pose for human health worldwide. Epidemiological modelling is …

Disease emergence events, epidemics and pandemics all underscore the need to predict
zoonotic pathogen spillover. Because cross-species transmission is inherently hierarchical …

In spite of medical breakthroughs, the emergence of pathogens continues to pose threats to
both human and animal populations. We present candidate approaches for anticipating …