The expectations theory of the term structure is well known to give wrong signals as to the
future course of long-term interest rates. One explanation involves rational time-varying term …

This paper tests the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and the expectations theory of
the term structure using the Livingston survey data on price inflation forecasts. For a variety …

The one-year expected inflation rate and the expected real return on one-year bonds move
opposite one another. The result is that the term structure shows little power to forecast near …

Recent research has begun to examine what information the term structure of interest rates
contains about future inflation. Mishkin [1990] examines the term structure for US Treasury …

This paper presents new evidence about the information contained in the term structure
about future inflation. Although the general finding in the literature is that the greater the time …

This empirical analysis indicates that for maturities of six months or less, the term structure of
nominal interest rates provides almost no information about the future path of inflation but …

In this paper I examine the time‐varying expected term premium argument for the failure of
the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of US interest rates. Using an unobserved …

Financial market deregulation and innovation have considerably complicated the
interpretation of money aggregates in the 198Os, making them less reliable indicators for …

Survey data on interest rate expectations permit separate testing of the two alternative
hypotheses in traditional term structure tests: that the expectations hypothesis fails, and that …

I use a statistical model to combine various surveys to produce a term structure of inflation
expectations—inflation expectations at any horizon—and an associated term structure of …