Term structure, inflation, and real activity

A Berardi - Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2009 - cambridge.org
This paper estimates an internally consistent structural model that imposes cross-sectional
restrictions on the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates, inflation, and output …

Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates

A Orphanides, M Wei - Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2012 - Elsevier
We explore the role of evolving beliefs regarding the structure of the macroeconomy in
improving our understanding of the term structure of interest rates within the context of a …

The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation

E Argyropoulos, E Tzavalis - The Quarterly Review of Economics and …, 2021 - Elsevier
Based on an empirically attractive Gaussian dynamic term structure model and data on the
short-term real interest rate and per capita real consumption, this paper examines the …

A new normal for interest rates? Evidence from inflation-indexed debt

JHE Christensen, GD Rudebusch - Review of Economics and …, 2019 - direct.mit.edu
The downtrend in US interest rates over the past two decades may partly reflect a decline in
the longer-run equilibrium real rate of interest. We examine this issue using dynamic term …

A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy

H Dewachter, M Lyrio, K Maes - Journal of Applied …, 2006 - Wiley Online Library
We present and estimate a continuous time term structure model that incorporates
observable macroeconomic variables and latent variables with a clear macroeconomic …

[图书][B] Macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

T Wu - 2001 - search.proquest.com
This dissertation examines the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and
the macro economy. In the first chapter an affine term structure model of bond yields is …

Examining Simple Joint Macroeconomic and Term-Structure Models: A Practitioner's Perspective

D Bolder, S Liu - 2007 - banqueducanada.ca
The primary objective of this paper is to compare a variety of joint models of the term
structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy. To this end, we consider six alternative …

Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics

H Doshi, K Jacobs, R Liu - Journal of Empirical Finance, 2018 - Elsevier
We propose a no-arbitrage term structure model with a Taylor rule and two macroeconomic
variables, real activity growth and inflation, that each contain long-run and short-run …

Why do interest rates predict macro outcomes?: A unified theory of inflation, output, interest and policy

A Estrella - 1997 - ideas.repec.org
Several articles published in the 1990s have identified empirical relationships between the
term structure of real and nominal interest rates, on one hand, and future real output and …

How Strong is the Relation Between the Term Structure, Inflation and GDP?

A Berardi - Inflation and GDP, 2001 - papers.ssrn.com
This paper develops and estimates an equilibrium model which investigates the relationship
between the term structure of interest rates, inflation and GDP growth. The model accounts …