The paper proposes a new measure of exogenous oil supply shocks. The timing, the
magnitude, and the sign of this measure may differ greatly from current state-of-the-art …

Oil prices have risen sharply over the last year, leading to concerns that we could see a
repeat of the 1970s, when rising oil prices were accompanied by severe recessions and …

This paper analyzes how global economic activity reacts to shocks in the crude oil market,
allowing that such reactions may change over time by using a Time-Varying Parameter …

As the world economic power shifts from the advanced G7 countries—Canada, France,
Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—to the seven largest …

Crude oil prices have trended up since the end of the 1990s, peaking at a historic high in
mid-2008 that was followed by a steep price correction with a subsequent rebound. This …

Recently, some analysts and economists had warned that the US economy faces a much
higher risk of falling into a recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In …

The interaction between oil and macroeconomic performance has long attracted attention in
the economic literature. 1 This interest dates back to the 1970s. As shown in Figure 1, the …

I examine the role of the US shale oil boom in driving global oil prices. Using a structural
vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that identifies separate oil supply shocks for the US …

This paper investigates how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous
character of oil price changes affect stock-market returns in a sample of eight countries …

Policy makers are interested in estimates of the potential economic impacts of oil price
shocks, particularly during periods of rapid and large increases that accompany severe …