This paper uses a flexible approach to characterize the nonlinear relation between oil price
changes and GDP growth. The paper reports clear evidence of nonlinearity, consistent with …

In draft form, this report was widely circulated and reviewed within government circles. We
thank those reviewers for their comments, many of which have been incorporated, without …

The relationship between oil price shocks and US macroeconomic fluctuations advocated by
Hamilton (1983) broke down in the 1980s amidst a new regime of highly volatile oil price …

A considerable body of economic literature shows the adverse economic impacts of oil-price
shocks for the developed economies. However, there has been a lack of empirical study of …

This study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy is marginal.
Both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to …

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the impulse responses of a Global VAR model,
estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, as well as bounds on …

This study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy is marginal.
Both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to …

Following Iraqs invasion of Kuwait, oil prices temporarily doubled. This paper examines the
hypothesis that the US economy had changed following previous oil price shocks, so that …

Why do higher crude oil prices depress stocks? Oil price shocks appear to cause output
declines, but the magnitude and mechanism that link oil prices and output remain …

The rapid rise in the price of crude oil between 2004 and the summer of 2006 are the subject
of debate. This paper investigates the factors that might have contributed to the oil price …