Following the exisiting literature, we present the most up-to-date estimates of oil shocks and
the response of the US economy. Regardless of model specifications, oil supply shocks …

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for
explaining US recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price …

Although average world crude oil prices have risen more than $30 per barrel since the end
of 2001, the US economy has remained strong, growing at about 3.5% annually over this …

Oil prices have dropped more than 50 percent since mid-2014. Establishing whether
demand or supply factors lie behind this slump is possibly useful for understanding its …

In recent years, output responses to oil price shocks have not only been weaker, but have
also reached their trough earlier. This paper builds a model that incorporates a realistic …

We replicate and update the results of Kilian (2009) to include the period since the financial
crisis. We separate the drivers of the price of crude oil shocks into three components: oil …

Our understanding of the sources of oil price fluctuations and their effects on the US
economy has undergone important transformations in the last decades. First, several studies …

In this paper we argue that an oil price change is likely to have greater impact on real GNP
in an environment where oil prices have been stable, than in an environment where oil price …

The paper proposes a new measure of exogenous oil supply shocks. The timing, the
magnitude, and the sign of this measure may differ greatly from current state-of-the-art …

The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental
empirical issue in macroeconomics. Hamilton (1983) showed that oil prices had significant …