Projection of individual age-specific fertility rates is a forecasting problem of high dimension.
We solve this dimensionality problem by using parametric curves to approximate the annual …

Recent papers by Rogers (1986) and Thompson et al.(1987) suggest fitting curves to annual
age-specific fertility rates, forecasting the parameters of the curves using time series …

To develop high-low bounds for population projections, traditional demographic forecasts
assume fertility is always high or always low. Such bounds are related to bounds on average …

This study employs parameterized model schedules of the age profiles of fertility to
summarize age-specific rates with a small number of parameters. Time series models of the …

Fertility and mortality rates exhibit strong age patterns, and various researchers have
developed methods to capture this structure and use it in forecasting. Two general …

Projecting Age-Specific Fertility Rates by Using Time-Series Methods Page 1 European
Journal of Population 5 (1989) 315-346 North-Holland 315 PROJECTING AGE-SPECIFIC …

The value of national sample survey data relating to birth expectations for projecting births is
reassessed in the light of data limitations pointed out by Ryder and Westoff among others …

The aim was to examidne the nature of the roots for a set of net fertility function expressing
the full variety of fertility experience to be found in large human populations. One segment of …

A preliminary version of this paper was presented at the World Fertility Survey Symposium,
24—27 April 1984, in London. We are grateful to John Cleland, Thomas Pullum, and Chris …

Demographic forecasting techniques fail with post-transition populations dominated by
fluctuating fertility; time series analysis of fertility can improve the forecasts. This article …