The battle against deterministic forecasts and financial valuations in the oil and gas industry
appears to have been won, as evidenced by the plethora of papers, conference sessions,
and forums focused on uncertainty quantification or profit prediction. Yet, decision makers
are still not sure what they should do. Rather than basing important decisions on a single
number, they now find themselves buried under a mountain of probability distributions.
Uncertainty quantification seems to have confused more than it has enlightened. In this …