Over a decade of evidence supports the claim that increased access to insurance through Medicaid expansions improves early detection of cancer. Yet, evidence linking Medicaid expansions to early detection of head and neck cancers (HNC) of the oral cavity and pharynx, specifically, may be limited by the lack of attention to Human Papillomavirus (HPV) etiology, generosity of dental coverage, and valid inference analyzing state cancer registry data.

This study reexamined the effect of Medicaid expansion on early detection of HPV+/− HNC in states offering extensive dental benefits.

Specialized data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program was analyzed to account for, previously unmeasurable, differential detection patterns of HNCs associated with HPV. Then, to identify the effect of increasing Medicaid eligibility on staging patterns in states offering extensive benefits amidst potentially non‐common trends between states, a “Triple Differences” design identifies the differential effect of Medicaid Expansion (with dental coverage) on HPV‐negative HNCs relative to the change in HPV‐positive HNCs. For valid inference analyzing a small number of state clusters (12) in cancer registry data, each regression model applies a Wild Cluster Bootstrap.

Expanding Medicaid eligibility was found to be associated with a decrease in the proportion of distant‐stage diagnoses of HPV(−) HNCs, but only among states which increased Medicaid dental generosity at the time of Medicaid expansion.

These results suggest that adding extensive Medicaid dental benefits was the primary mechanism impacting HNC detection. This study highlights the potential positive spillover effects of policies which increase access to public dental coverage for low‐income adults, while also showing the limitation of access to dental services for improving early detection of HPV+ HNCs.