The strong association between the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and risk of diabetes reported in European populations cannot necessarily be generalized to other populations. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of FINDRISC to predict progression to diabetes in an Iranian population without diabetes.

A total of 1537 first-degree relatives (FDR) without diabetes of consecutive people with type 2 diabetes 30–70 years old (376 men and 1161 women) were examined and followed for a mean (SD) of 7.8 (1.7) years for diabetes incidence. We examined the incidence of diabetes across quartiles of FINDRISC and plotted a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to assess discrimination. At baseline and through follow-up, participants underwent a standard 75-g 2-h oral glucose tolerance test. Data for the FINDRISC were available from each participant.

During 12,046 person-years of follow-up, 41 men and 154 women developed diabetes. The incidence of type 2 diabetes was 14.0 per 1000 person-years in men and 16.9 in women. Those in the top quartile of FINDRISC were 21.7 times more likely to develop diabetes than those in the bottom quartile (relative risk 21.7; 95% CI 9.90, 47.39). The area under the ROC was 75.1% (95% CI 71.3, 78.8).

The results of this study show that FINDRISC is a robust predictor of type 2 diabetes in high-risk individuals in Iran.