Imperfect private information in insurance markets

A Solomon - Review of Economics and Statistics, 2023 - direct.mit.edu
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2023direct.mit.edu
This paper studies imperfectly-perceived private information in insurance markets when
contracts endogenously respond. Equilibrium contracts, pooling and welfare depend on the
joint distribution of risk and misperception. In the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), I show
that misperceptions typically co-vary with (medical, long-term care, disability and mortality)
risk type: high types under-perceive their risk, low types over-perceive. I develop a general
model and algorithm to estimate the equilibrium contracts, pooling and welfare impact of …
Abstract
This paper studies imperfectly-perceived private information in insurance markets when contracts endogenously respond. Equilibrium contracts, pooling and welfare depend on the joint distribution of risk and misperception. In the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), I show that misperceptions typically co-vary with (medical, long-term care, disability and mortality) risk type: high types under-perceive their risk, low types over-perceive. I develop a general model and algorithm to estimate the equilibrium contracts, pooling and welfare impact of misperceptions that is applicable in many settings. I offer suggestive evidence from US annuity markets that contracts are distorted due to misperceptions, with welfare likely increasing.
MIT Press
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