The resurgence of the American economy since 1995 has outrun all but the most optimistic
expectations. Economic forecasting models have been seriously off track and growth
projections have been revised to reflect a more sanguine outlook only recently. 1 It is not
surprising that the unusual combination of more rapid growth and slower inflation in the
1990's has touched off a strenuous debate among economists about whether improvements
in America's economic performance can be sustained. The starting point for the economic …

The role of information technology and productivity growth has become the subject of hot
debate in the US for a number of reasons. The US is now officially in recession, as of March
2001. And there are added uncertainties associated with the events of September 11. My
view is that we should expect to see a continued impact of information technology on
productivity growth and an acceleration in economic growth relative to periods when IT was
less important.This is not the only view out there. Last year, at a meeting at Jackson Hole …