Is money really'smart'? New evidence on the relation between mutual fund flows, manager behavior, and performance persistence

R Wermers - New Evidence on the Relation Between Mutual Fund …, 2003 - papers.ssrn.com
New Evidence on the Relation Between Mutual Fund Flows, Manager …, 2003papers.ssrn.com
Mutual fund returns strongly persist over multi-year periods-that is the central finding of this
paper. Further, consumer and fund manager behavior both play a large role in explaining
these long-term continuation patterns-consumers invest heavily in last-year's winning funds,
and managers of these winners invest these inflows in momentum stocks to continue to
outperform other funds for at least two years following the ranking year. By contrast,
managers of losing funds appear reluctant to sell their losing stocks to finance the purchase …
Abstract
Mutual fund returns strongly persist over multi-year periods-that is the central finding of this paper. Further, consumer and fund manager behavior both play a large role in explaining these long-term continuation patterns-consumers invest heavily in last-year's winning funds, and managers of these winners invest these inflows in momentum stocks to continue to outperform other funds for at least two years following the ranking year. By contrast, managers of losing funds appear reluctant to sell their losing stocks to finance the purchase of new momentum stocks, perhaps due to a disposition effect. Thus, momentum continues to separate winning from losing managers for a much longer period than indicated by prior studies.
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