Background: It has been 30 years since the initiation of active surveillance (AS) for adult patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). This study compared the long-term oncological outcomes of patients who underwent AS or immediate surgery (IS).

Methods: This is a retrospective review of extended follow-up data from patients enrolled in a single-center, prospective observational study in Japan. In total, 5646 patients diagnosed with low-risk PTMC at Kuma Hospital between 1993 and 2019 were enrolled in this study. Of these, 3222 patients underwent AS (AS group), whereas 2424 underwent IS (IS group). The patients were followed up regularly, at least once per year. Descriptive outcome data were presented according to the treatment group.

Results: In the AS group, 124 patients (3.8%) had tumor enlargement of ≥3 mm, and the 10- and 20-year enlargement rates were 4.7% and 6.6%, respectively. Novel lymph node metastases occurred in 27 patients (0.8%), and the 10- and 20-year nodal metastasis occurrence rates were 1.0% and 1.6%, respectively. In the IS group, 13 patients (0.5%) experienced lymph node recurrence postoperatively, and the 10- and 20-year nodal recurrence rates were 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively. Eighteen (1.4%) of the 1327 patients who underwent hemithyroidectomy experienced recurrence in the residual thyroid. The rate of lymph node metastasis was significantly higher in the AS group than in the IS group (1.1% vs. 0.4% and 1.7% vs. 0.7% at 10 and 20 years, respectively; p = 0.009), but the differences were small. However, the proportion of patients who underwent one or more and two or more surgeries was significantly higher in the IS group than in the AS group (100% vs. 12.3% and 1.07% vs. 0.09%, p < 0.01). Distant metastatic recurrence was observed in one patient after AS and conversion surgery and another after IS; however, they were alive (18.4 and 18.8 years after diagnosis, respectively). None of the patients in this study died of thyroid carcinoma.

Conclusions: Long-term oncological outcomes of patients with PTMC generally did not differ clinically significantly between those undergoing AS and IS. AS is a viable initial management option for patients with low-risk PTMC.