What role do local officials' incentives play in regional economic growth? How do local
officials behave under promotion pressure? This paper studies the unintended impact of
mayors' promotion incentives on regional economic growth and subnationallevel GDP
manipulation in China. We employ a regression discontinuity design that accounts for age
restrictions in deciding promotions for mayors. We find that when GDP performance is
prioritized in officials' promotion evaluations (before 2013), mayors' promotion incentives …

What role do local officials' incentives play in regional economic growth? How do local
officials behave under promotion pressure? This paper studies the unintended impact of
mayors' promotion incentives on regional economic growth and subnational-level GDP
manipulation in China. We employ a regression discontinuity design that accounts for age
restrictions in deciding promotions for mayors. We find that when GDP performance is
prioritized in officials' promotion evaluations (before 2013), mayors' promotion incentives …