Using the MP1–p14 scaffolding complex from the mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling pathway as model system, we explored a structure-based computational protocol to probe and characterize binding affinity hot spots at protein–protein interfaces. Hot spots are located by virtual alanine-scanning consensus predictions over three different energy functions and two different single-structure representations of the complex. Refined binding affinity predictions for select hot-spot mutations are carried out by applying first-principle methods such as the molecular mechanics generalized Born surface area (MM-GBSA) and solvated interaction energy (SIE) to the molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories for mutated and wild-type complexes. Here, predicted hot-spot residues were actually mutated to alanine, and crystal structures of the mutated complexes were determined. Two mutated MP1–p14 complexes were investigated, the p14(Y56A)-mutated complex and the MP1(L63A,L65A)-mutated complex. Alternative ways to generate MD ensembles for mutant complexes, not relying on crystal structures for mutated complexes, were also investigated. The SIE function, fitted on protein–ligand binding affinities, gave absolute binding affinity predictions in excellent agreement with experiment and outperformed standard MM-GBSA predictions when tested on the MD ensembles of Ras–Raf and Ras–RalGDS protein–protein complexes. For wild-type and mutant MP1–p14 complexes, SIE predictions of relative binding affinities were supported by a yeast two-hybrid assay that provided semiquantitative relative interaction strengths. Results on the MP1-mutated complex suggested that SIE predictions deteriorate if mutant MD ensembles are approximated by just mutating the wild-type MD trajectory. The SIE data on the p14-mutated complex indicated feasibility for generating mutant MD ensembles from mutated wild-type crystal structure, despite local structural differences observed upon mutation. For energetic considerations, this would circumvent costly needs to produce and crystallize mutated complexes. The sensitized protein–protein interface afforded by the p14(Y56A) mutation identified here has practical applications in screening-based discovery of first-generation small-molecule hits for further development into specific modulators of the mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling pathway.