Optimal surveillance against foot‐and‐mouth disease: the case of bulk milk testing in Australia

T Kompas, PV Ha, HTM Nguyen, I East… - Australian Journal of …, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
T Kompas, PV Ha, HTM Nguyen, I East, S Roche, G Garner
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2017Wiley Online Library
Previous foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks and simulation‐based analyses suggest
substantial payoffs from detecting an incursion early. However, no economic measures for
early detection have been analysed in an optimising framework. We investigate the use of
bulk milk testing (BMT) for active surveillance against an FMD incursion in Australia. We find
that BMT can be justified, but only when the FMD entry probability is sufficiently high or the
cost of BMT is low. However, BMT is well suited for post‐outbreak surveillance, to shorten …
Previous foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks and simulation‐based analyses suggest substantial payoffs from detecting an incursion early. However, no economic measures for early detection have been analysed in an optimising framework. We investigate the use of bulk milk testing (BMT) for active surveillance against an FMD incursion in Australia. We find that BMT can be justified, but only when the FMD entry probability is sufficiently high or the cost of BMT is low. However, BMT is well suited for post‐outbreak surveillance, to shorten the length of time and size of an epidemic and to facilitate an earlier return to market.
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