[PDF][PDF] Public debt-to-GDP ratio in new EU member states: Cut the numerator or increase the denominator

T Globan, M Matošec - Romanian journal of economic forecasting, 2016 - ipe.ro
Romanian journal of economic forecasting, 2016ipe.ro
This paper analyses public debt determinants in EU new member states. The aim is to
examine the fiscal position of these countries, as well as to offer proposals for a more
successful containment of the rising debt levels. The paper attempts to answer the key
question: does fiscal consolidation (the numerator) or economic growth (the denominator)
have a stronger impact in determining the debt-to-GDP ratio? Results of the panel data
analysis showed that by achieving a more balanced government budget, public debt growth …
Abstract
This paper analyses public debt determinants in EU new member states. The aim is to examine the fiscal position of these countries, as well as to offer proposals for a more successful containment of the rising debt levels. The paper attempts to answer the key question: does fiscal consolidation (the numerator) or economic growth (the denominator) have a stronger impact in determining the debt-to-GDP ratio? Results of the panel data analysis showed that by achieving a more balanced government budget, public debt growth decreases, but the effect is rather small. Conversely, estimated GDP growth parameters are much greater. Results imply that the sovereign debt crisis should be resolved by stimulating economic growth, while bearing in mind the high price of potentially irresponsible public finance management.
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