The Relationship Between Manufacturing Industry Bank Loans and Manufacturing Industry D-PPI: Loan-Inflation Spiral

M Beybur - Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 2022 - dergipark.org.tr
Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 2022dergipark.org.tr
It has been observed that the manufacturing industry D-PPI rates, interest rates applied
commercial loans (TL) by the banking sector, bank loans extended to the manufacturing
industry and NPLs of these loans have increased since 2020. In terms of the sustainability of
the manufacturing industry, which has an important place in Turkey's economic
development, the manufacturing industry D-PPI ratios and bank loans extended to the
manufacturing industry are of great importance. In this research, it is aimed to investigate the …
It has been observed that the manufacturing industry D-PPI rates, interest rates applied commercial loans (TL) by the banking sector, bank loans extended to the manufacturing industry and NPLs of these loans have increased since 2020. In terms of the sustainability of the manufacturing industry, which has an important place in Turkey’s economic development, the manufacturing industry D-PPI ratios and bank loans extended to the manufacturing industry are of great importance. In this research, it is aimed to investigate the relationship between the manufacturing industry D-PPI rates, the weighted average of the interest rates applied to commercial loans (TL) by the banking sector, bank loans extended to the manufacturing industry and NPLs of these loans. For this purpose, the Engle-Granger cointegration test and the Granger causality test were applied to the variables in question and the relationships between the variables were analyzed. As a result of the analyzes, it has been detected that all variables are mutually cointegrated in the long term and there is a mutual relationship between the non-performing manufacturing industry loans with the manufacturing industry D-PPI rate and the interest rate applied to commercial loans (TL). In addition, it has been determined that there is a one-way causality relationship from bank loans extended to the manufacturing industry to the manufacturing industry D-PPI rate, the interest rate applied to commercial loans (TL) and non-performing manufacturing industry loans. In the research, it was concluded that the manufacturing industry inflation and loans have become a spiral, and policy recommendations have been made for the banking sector and decision-makers.
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