We study the drivers of refugees' decision making about returning home using observational
and experimental data from a survey of 3,003 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. We find that the
conditions in refugee-hosting countries play a minor role. In contrast, conditions in a
refugee's home country are the main drivers of return intentions. Even in the face of hostility
and poor living conditions in host countries, refugees are unlikely to return unless the
situation at home improves significantly. These results challenge traditional models of …

In order to understand how refugee crises end we require an understanding of when and
why refugees return home. We study the drivers of refugees' decision-making using original
observational and experimental data from a representative sample of 3,003 Syrian refugees
in Lebanon. We find that conditions in a refugee's home country are the primary drivers of
return intentions. Refugees' decisions are influenced primarily by safety and security in their
place of origin, their economic prospects, and the availability of public services. Personal …