The effect of the business cycle on freshman financial aid

EB Clelan, MS Kofoed - Contemporary economic policy, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
EB Clelan, MS Kofoed
Contemporary economic policy, 2017Wiley Online Library
When the economy slips into recession, more needy students enroll in college, increasing
the need for financial aid while resources for aid become more scarce. We use “Freshman
Survey” data from the Higher Education Research Institute to observe changes in financial
aid composition from 1980 to 2000. We use state‐level tax revenues, unemployment rates,
and personal income growth as macroeconomic indicators. During recessions, we find that
the burden of financing a student's college education shifts from states and institutions to …
When the economy slips into recession, more needy students enroll in college, increasing the need for financial aid while resources for aid become more scarce. We use “Freshman Survey” data from the Higher Education Research Institute to observe changes in financial aid composition from 1980 to 2000. We use state‐level tax revenues, unemployment rates, and personal income growth as macroeconomic indicators. During recessions, we find that the burden of financing a student's college education shifts from states and institutions to families and federal programs. We also show that these macroeconomic fluctuations are increasingly volatile for underrepresented minorities. (JEL I22, H52, E32)
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