[PDF][PDF] Time-varying dependence between stock markets and oil prices during COVID-19: The case of net oil-exporting countries
Economics Bulletin, 2020•researchgate.net
This article provides an empirical investigation of the time-varying dependence between oil
prices and stock markets in the top ten net oil-exporting countries. Using daily data focusing
on COVID-19 period, we implement the DCCGARCH to identify the dynamic dependence.
Then, we apply structural break techniques to detect the shift in the dependence structure.
We find that there exists a positive time-varying dependence between oil returns and stock
returns during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic wherein the breakpoints mostly coincided …
prices and stock markets in the top ten net oil-exporting countries. Using daily data focusing
on COVID-19 period, we implement the DCCGARCH to identify the dynamic dependence.
Then, we apply structural break techniques to detect the shift in the dependence structure.
We find that there exists a positive time-varying dependence between oil returns and stock
returns during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic wherein the breakpoints mostly coincided …
Abstract
This article provides an empirical investigation of the time-varying dependence between oil prices and stock markets in the top ten net oil-exporting countries. Using daily data focusing on COVID-19 period, we implement the DCCGARCH to identify the dynamic dependence. Then, we apply structural break techniques to detect the shift in the dependence structure. We find that there exists a positive time-varying dependence between oil returns and stock returns during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic wherein the breakpoints mostly coincided with the emergence of oil price war and global stock market crash. Overall, results imply that declining oil prices lead to a fall in stock returns due to lower future earnings for oil companies, exhibiting a signal of reduction in aggregate demand and economic activity in oil-exporting countries. Thus, the high positive co-movement may have ill-effects on portfolio diversification, as the latter will be less effective if the asset returns are highly correlated.
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