[HTML][HTML] Unpacking the Effects of Bank Credit Supply Shocks on Economic Activity

M Cavallo, JM Morelli, R Zarutskie - 2024 - federalreserve.gov
2024federalreserve.gov
In this note, we examine the effects of bank credit supply shocks on real economic activity.
First, we estimate how GDP and various aggregate demand sectors respond to such shocks.
Second, based on the estimated responses, we compute how much those sectors contribute
to the overall response of aggregate demand to bank credit supply shocks. We find that
these shocks affect aggregate demand disproportionately through personal consumption
expenditures on durable goods, nonresidential investment in equipment, and residential …
In this note, we examine the effects of bank credit supply shocks on real economic activity. First, we estimate how GDP and various aggregate demand sectors respond to such shocks. Second, based on the estimated responses, we compute how much those sectors contribute to the overall response of aggregate demand to bank credit supply shocks. We find that these shocks affect aggregate demand disproportionately through personal consumption expenditures on durable goods, nonresidential investment in equipment, and residential investment. We also find that measuring bank credit supply shocks through individual loan categories and estimating their effects on the corresponding aggregate demand sectors does not allow us to account for the overall estimated response of aggregate demand growth. This result suggests the presence of meaningful linkages at work across the various lending categories in the propagation of bank credit supply shocks.
federalreserve.gov
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