Event prediction is the ability of anticipating future events, ie, future real-world occurrences,
and aims to support the user in deciding on actions that change future events towards a …

Biases like overconfidence and anchoring affect values elicited from people in predictable
ways—due to people's inherent cognitive processes. The more-or-less elicitation (MOLE) …

Brier score decompositions, including those attributed to Murphy and to Yates, provide
popular metrics for estimating forecast performance attributes like calibration and …

The omnipresent and reoccurring market bubbles and crashes have been puzzling both
finance professionals and academics. Important economic theories such as the efficient …

This paper establishes a new relationship between proper scoring rules and convex risk
measures. Specifically, we demonstrate that the entropy function associated with any …

The estimation of the amount of uncertainty featured by predictive machine learning models
has acquired a great momentum in recent years. Uncertainty estimation provides the user …

A review of scoring rules highlights the distinction between rewarding honesty and
rewarding quality. This motivates the introduction of a scale‐invariant version of the …

Scoring rules are aimed at evaluation of the quality of predictions, but can also be used for
estimation of parameters in statistical models. We propose estimating parameters of …

Examples n<-300# number of subjects K<-8# number of measurements per subject t_max<-
15# maximum follow-up time# we constuct a data frame with the design:# everyone has a …

We construct a model of expert prediction where predictions can influence the state of the
world. Under this model, we show through theoretical and numerical results that proper …