This paper analyzes waves in international capital flows. We develop a new methodology for
identifying episodes of extreme capital flow movements using data that differentiates activity …

This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the macroeconomic
implications of financial imperfections. It focuses on two major channels through which …

We analyze uncertainty and financial development effects on foreign direct investment (FDI)
inflows using a global sample of 116 countries over 1996-2017. Our main findings are that …

A recent strand of research proposes that sudden jumps in uncertainty generate rapid drops
and recoveries in real macroeconomic variables that drive the business cycle. Using an …

This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the
effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical …

Between 2000 and 2012, the Portuguese economy grew less than the United States during
the Great Depression and less than Japan during its lost decade. This paper asks why this …

We provide a pricing theory for emerging asset classes, like emerging markets, that are not
yet mature enough to be attractive to the general public. We show how leverage cycles can …

The financial crisis has re-ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization
and its implications for growth, especially for developing countries. The empirical literature …

In this paper we study a two-sector production small open economy subject to a collateral
constraint in which a financial crisis can arise endogenously and alternate with normal time …

Despite an abundance of cross-section, panel, and event studies, there is strikingly little
convincing documentation of direct positive impacts of financial opening on the economic …