Financial crises have large deleterious effects on economic activity, and as such have been
the focus of a large body of research. This study surveys the existing literature on financial …

Summary We move beyond Is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting? by
adding the how. The current forecasting literature has focused on matching specific …

We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a
template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and …

" This Handbook adopts a traditional definition of the subject, and focuses primarily on the
explanation of international transactions in goods, services, and assets, and on the main …

Financial cycle booms can end in crises and, even if they do not, they tend to weaken
growth. Given their slow build-up, do they convey information about recession risk? We …

We study the persistent effects of temporary changes in US federal corporate and personal
income tax rates using a narrative identification approach. A corporate income tax cut leads …

This paper introduces parametric spectrum estimation to the analysis of financial cycles. Our
contribution is to formally test properties of financial cycles and to characterize their …

We compare and contrast two prominent notions of financial cycles: a domestic variant,
which focuses on how financial conditions within individual economies lead to boom-bust …

Military spending has sizable effects on long-run growth because it shifts the composition of
public spending towards R&D. This boosts innovation and private investment in the medium …

Hamilton (2018) proposes a regression filter (Hamilton filter) as an alternative to the Hodrick-
Prescott filter (HP filter). He argues that the Hamilton filter meets all the objectives desired by …