[HTML][HTML] Forecasting: theory and practice

F Petropoulos, D Apiletti, V Assimakopoulos… - International Journal of …, 2022 - Elsevier
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …

Factor models, machine learning, and asset pricing

S Giglio, B Kelly, D Xiu - Annual Review of Financial Economics, 2022 - annualreviews.org
We survey recent methodological contributions in asset pricing using factor models and
machine learning. We organize these results based on their primary objectives: estimating …

Financial machine learning

B Kelly, D Xiu - Foundations and Trends® in Finance, 2023 - nowpublishers.com
We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We
highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend …

Volatility of clean energy and natural gas, uncertainty indices, and global economic conditions

J Wang, F Ma, E Bouri, J Zhong - Energy Economics, 2022 - Elsevier
Existing studies rely on exogenous drivers to improve the accuracy of the volatility
forecasting of the least polluting fossil fuels, natural gas. However, the academic literature …

Geopolitical risk trends and crude oil price predictability

Z Zhang, M He, Y Zhang, Y Wang - Energy, 2022 - Elsevier
Motivated by recent investigations on the connections between geopolitical risk and crude
oil prices, we implement a moving average strategy using the geopolitical risk index to …

Empirical asset pricing via machine learning

S Gu, B Kelly, D Xiu - The Review of Financial Studies, 2020 - academic.oup.com
We perform a comparative analysis of machine learning methods for the canonical problem
of empirical asset pricing: measuring asset risk premiums. We demonstrate large economic …

An Augmented q-Factor Model with Expected Growth

K Hou, H Mo, C Xue, L Zhang - Review of Finance, 2021 - academic.oup.com
In the investment theory, firms with high expected investment growth earn higher expected
returns than firms with low expected investment growth, holding investment and expected …

Climate change news risk and corporate bond returns

TD Huynh, Y Xia - Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2021 - cambridge.org
We examine whether climate change news risk is priced in corporate bonds. We estimate
bond covariance with a climate change news index and find that bonds with a higher climate …

Deep learning in asset pricing

L Chen, M Pelger, J Zhu - Management Science, 2024 - pubsonline.informs.org
We use deep neural networks to estimate an asset pricing model for individual stock returns
that takes advantage of the vast amount of conditioning information, keeps a fully flexible …

Bond risk premiums with machine learning

D Bianchi, M Büchner, A Tamoni - The Review of Financial …, 2021 - academic.oup.com
We show that machine learning methods, in particular, extreme trees and neural networks
(NNs), provide strong statistical evidence in favor of bond return predictability. NN forecasts …