[HTML][HTML] Public health impact of the US Scenario Modeling Hub

RK Borchering, JM Healy, BL Cadwell, MA Johansson… - Epidemics, 2023 - Elsevier
Beginning in December 2020, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub has provided
quantitative scenario-based projections for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, aggregated …

[HTML][HTML] The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: delivering long-term projections to guide policy

SL Loo, E Howerton, L Contamin, CP Smith… - Epidemics, 2024 - Elsevier
Abstract Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub
(SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to …

[HTML][HTML] A scenario modeling pipeline for COVID-19 emergency planning

JC Lemaitre, KH Grantz, J Kaminsky, HR Meredith… - Scientific reports, 2021 - nature.com
Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused strain on health systems
worldwide due to its high mortality rate and the large portion of cases requiring critical care …

[HTML][HTML] Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. An evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

E Howerton, L Contamin, LC Mullany, M Qin, NG Reich… - medRxiv, 2023 - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the
complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an …

[HTML][HTML] Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

E Howerton, L Contamin, LC Mullany, M Qin… - Nature …, 2023 - nature.com
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of
disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well …

[HTML][HTML] When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting

E Howerton, WJM Probert, MC Runge, C Viboud… - Epidemics, 2024 - Elsevier
Mathematical models are useful for public health planning and response to infectious
disease threats. However, different models can provide differing results, which can hamper …

[HTML][HTML] Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design

MC Runge, K Shea, E Howerton, K Yan, H Hochheiser… - Epidemics, 2024 - Elsevier
Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term
projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties …

[HTML][HTML] Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

S Jung, SL Loo, E Howerton, L Contamin… - Plos …, 2024 - journals.plos.org
Background Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant
hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of …

[HTML][HTML] An evaluation of prospective COVID-19 modelling studies in the USA: from data to science translation

K Nixon, S Jindal, F Parker, NG Reich… - The Lancet Digital …, 2022 - thelancet.com
Infectious disease modelling can serve as a powerful tool for situational awareness and
decision support for policy makers. However, COVID-19 modelling efforts faced many …

Collaborative hubs: making the most of predictive epidemic modeling

NG Reich, J Lessler, S Funk… - … Journal of Public …, 2022 - ajph.aphapublications.org
The COVID-19 pandemic has made it clear that epidemic models play an important role in
how governments and the public respond to infectious disease crises. Early in the …