[HTML][HTML] Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. An evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub
Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the
complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an …
complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an …
Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of
disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well …
disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well …
[HTML][HTML] Public health impact of the US Scenario Modeling Hub
Beginning in December 2020, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub has provided
quantitative scenario-based projections for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, aggregated …
quantitative scenario-based projections for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, aggregated …
The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: delivering long-term projections to guide policy
Abstract Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub
(SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to …
(SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to …
[HTML][HTML] When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting
E Howerton, WJM Probert, MC Runge, C Viboud… - Epidemics, 2024 - Elsevier
Mathematical models are useful for public health planning and response to infectious
disease threats. However, different models can provide differing results, which can hamper …
disease threats. However, different models can provide differing results, which can hamper …
[HTML][HTML] Real-time mechanistic bayesian forecasts of covid-19 mortality
The COVID-19 pandemic emerged in late December 2019. In the first six months of the
global outbreak, the US reported more cases and deaths than any other country in the world …
global outbreak, the US reported more cases and deaths than any other country in the world …
A scenario modeling pipeline for COVID-19 emergency planning
Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused strain on health systems
worldwide due to its high mortality rate and the large portion of cases requiring critical care …
worldwide due to its high mortality rate and the large portion of cases requiring critical care …
Modeling COVID-19 epidemics in an Excel spreadsheet: Democratizing the access to first-hand accurate predictions of epidemic outbreaks
MM Alvarez, E González-González… - medRxiv, 2020 - medrxiv.org
COVID-19, the first pandemic of this decade and the second in less than 15 years, has
harshly taught us that viral diseases do not recognize boundaries; however, they truly do …
harshly taught us that viral diseases do not recognize boundaries; however, they truly do …
An evaluation of prospective COVID-19 modelling studies in the USA: from data to science translation
Infectious disease modelling can serve as a powerful tool for situational awareness and
decision support for policy makers. However, COVID-19 modelling efforts faced many …
decision support for policy makers. However, COVID-19 modelling efforts faced many …
The quixotic task of forecasting peaks of covid-19: Rather focus on forward and backward projections
Over the last months, mathematical models have been extensively used to help control the
COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. Although extremely useful in many tasks, most models …
COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. Although extremely useful in many tasks, most models …