On the predictability of the extreme drought in East Africa during the short rains season

T Doi, SK Behera, T Yamagata - Geophysical Research Letters, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract Many parts of East Africa experienced extremely dry conditions during the short
rains season of October–December 2021. It was predicted a few months before by the …

Understanding the Central Equatorial African long-term drought using AMIP-type simulations

W Hua, L Zhou, H Chen, SE Nicholson, Y Jiang… - Climate dynamics, 2018 - Springer
Previous studies show that Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variations may help
to explain the observed long-term drought during April–May–June (AMJ) since the 1990s …

Examining the role of unusually warm Indo‐Pacific sea‐surface temperatures in recent African droughts

C Funk, L Harrison, S Shukla… - Quarterly Journal of …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
Southern Africa (SA) and eastern Africa (EA) experienced a sequence of severe droughts in
December–February (SA DJF) 2015–2016, October–December (EA OND) 2016 and March …

Assessment of prediction and predictability of short rains over equatorial East Africa using a multi-model ensemble

TK Bahaga, F Kucharski, GM Tsidu, H Yang - Theoretical and applied …, 2016 - Springer
In this study, the performance of dynamical seasonal forecast systems is evaluated for the
prediction of short rain anomalies over equatorial East Africa. The evaluation is based on …

Drivers of subseasonal forecast errors of the East African short rains

EW Kolstad, D Macleod… - Geophysical Research …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
The 'short rains' in East Africa from October to December have significant year‐to‐year
variability. Their abundance or deficiency is often associated with floods or droughts for …

Potential predictability of the sea‐surface temperature forced equatorial East African short rains interannual variability in the 20th century

TK Bahaga, G Mengistu Tsidu… - Quarterly Journal of …, 2015 - Wiley Online Library
In this article, the predictability of the 20th century sea‐surface temperature (SST) forced
East African short rains variability is analyzed using observational data and ensembles of …

Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

PA Monerie, J Robson, B Dong, B Dieppois, B Pohl… - Climate Dynamics, 2019 - Springer
We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer
precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15° S …

Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models

B Ayugi, ZW Shilenje, H Babaousmail… - Natural Hazards, 2022 - Springer
The ongoing global warming has caused unprecedented changes in the climate system,
leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate extremes. This …

Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature influences on failed consecutive rainy seasons over eastern Africa

A Hoell, C Funk - Climate dynamics, 2014 - Springer
Rainfall over eastern Africa (10° S–10° N; 35° E–50° E) is bimodal, with seasonal maxima
during the" long rains" of March–April–May (MAM) and the" short rains" of October …

Extreme wet years over southern Africa: Role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

R Washington, A Preston - Journal of Geophysical Research …, 2006 - Wiley Online Library
Southern Africa is a predominantly semiarid region with a high degree of interannual rainfall
variability. Although much of the recent climate research has focused on the causes of …