Worst‐case scenarios: Modeling uncontrolled type 2 polio transmission

DA Kalkowska, E Wiesen, SGF Wassilak… - Risk …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract In May 2016, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated the
cessation of all use of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2), except for emergency outbreak …

Reflections on modeling poliovirus transmission and the polio eradication endgame

KM Thompson, DA Kalkowska - Risk Analysis, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners engaged modelers during
the past nearly 20 years to support strategy and policy discussions and decisions, and to …

Updated characterization of outbreak response strategies for 2019–2029: impacts of using a novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine strain

DA Kalkowska, MA Pallansch, A Wilkinson… - Risk …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Delays in achieving the global eradication of wild poliovirus transmission continue to
postpone subsequent cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) use. Countries must stop …

[HTML][HTML] Modeling the spread of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks and interventions: A case study of Nigeria

Y Sun, P Keskinocak, LN Steimle, SD Kovacs… - Vaccine: X, 2024 - Elsevier
Background Despite the successes of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, substantial
challenges remain in eradicating the poliovirus. The Sabin-strain (live-attenuated) virus in …

Looking back at prospective modeling of outbreak response strategies for managing global type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) cessation

KM Thompson, DA Kalkowska… - Frontiers in Public …, 2023 - frontiersin.org
Introduction Detection of poliovirus transmission and ongoing oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV)
use continue to delay poliomyelitis eradication. In 2016, the Global Polio Eradication …

The risk of type 2 oral polio vaccine use in post-cessation outbreak response

KA McCarthy, G Chabot-Couture, M Famulare… - BMC medicine, 2017 - Springer
Background Wild type 2 poliovirus was last observed in 1999. The Sabin-strain oral polio
vaccine type 2 (OPV2) was critical to eradication, but it is known to revert to a neurovirulent …

Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences

DA Kalkowska, SGF Wassilak, E Wiesen… - Risk …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
Due to the very low, but nonzero, paralysis risks associated with the use of oral poliovirus
vaccine (OPV), eradicating poliomyelitis requires ending all OPV use globally. The Global …

Characterization of outbreak response strategies and potential vaccine stockpile needs for the polio endgame

RJ Duintjer Tebbens, MA Pallansch… - BMC Infectious …, 2016 - Springer
Background Following successful eradication of wild polioviruses and planned globally-
coordinated cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), national and global health leaders …

Models and analyses to understand threats to polio eradication

JS Koopman - BMC medicine, 2017 - Springer
To achieve complete polio eradication, the live oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) currently used
must be phased out after the end of wild poliovirus transmission. However, poorly …

Evaluation of response scenarios to potential polio outbreaks using mathematical models

KM Thompson, RJ Duintjer Tebbens… - Risk …, 2006 - Wiley Online Library
Appropriate response to polio outbreaks represents an important prerequisite for achieving
and maintaining global polio eradication. We use an existing dynamic disease transmission …