Demographic forecasting techniques do not perform particularly well for small areas. In this
study we propose a spatio‐temporal regression approach for small‐area population …

This study revisits a spatial regression approach for small-area population forecasting that
considers not only direct drivers of local area population growth but also neighbour growth …

Small area population forecasts are widely used by government and business for a variety of
planning, research and policy purposes, and often influence major investment decisions …

The regression approach for small-area population forecasting is increasingly used in urban
planning and emerging research in climate change and infrastructure systems in response …

At the small area scale simple methods for forecasting total populations are often employed
because of a lack of data for cohort‐component models, concerns about the reliability of …

Recent developments in urban and regional planning require more accurate population
forecasts at subcounty levels, as well as a consideration of interactions among population …

This study is concerned with the evaluation of the various models including time-series
forecasts, extrapolation, and projection procedures, that have been developed to prepare …

Many studies have evaluated the impact of differences in population size and growth rate on
population forecast accuracy. Virtually all these studies have been based on aggregate …

Population projections provide predictions of future population sizes for an area. Historically,
most population projections have been produced using deterministic or scenario-based …

Existing research in small-area demographic forecasting suffers from two important
limitations:(1) a paucity of studies that quantify patterns of error in either total or age/sex …