A number of studies in meteorological journals have documented some of the constraints to
the effective use of climate forecasts. One major constraint, the considerable difficulty people …

Forecast verification is an essential part of atmospheric science: the science of meteorology
is ultimately judged by the skill of its predictions. Forecast verification is a multi-disciplinary …

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The economic factors involved in the use of weather forecasts are discussed, and
procedures for analyzing the economic utility of both probability and categorical forecasts …

Many human activities and enterprises are affected by uncontrollable future weather
conditions. The outcomes of numerous decisions, ranging from fairly trivial (such as opening …

Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates
are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular …

Judgmental and statistical forecasts can each bring advantages to the forecasting process.
One way forecasters can integrate these methods is to adjust statistical forecasts based on …

The evidence in support of global warming and the lack of significant published evidence to
the contrary provides an extraordinarily strong foundation for the scientif ic community's call …

This paper describes the preliminary results of three experiments in subjective probability
forecasting which were recently conducted in four Weather Service Forecast Offices …

Mental models are the sets of causal beliefs we “run” in our minds to infer what will happen
in a given event or situation. Mental models, like other models, are useful simplifications …