Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: a case study in endemic districts of …

K Wangdi, P Singhasivanon, T Silawan, S Lawpoolsri… - Malaria Journal, 2010 - Springer
Background Malaria still remains a public health problem in some districts of Bhutan despite
marked reduction of cases in last few years. To strengthen the country's prevention and …

Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence

MY Anwar, JA Lewnard, S Parikh, VE Pitzer - Malaria journal, 2016 - Springer
Background Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention
strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in …

Forecasting malaria cases using climatic factors in Delhi, India: a time series analysis

V Kumar, A Mangal, S Panesar, G Yadav… - Malaria research …, 2014 - Wiley Online Library
Background. Malaria still remains a public health problem in developing countries and
changing environmental and climatic factors pose the biggest challenge in fighting against …

Time series analysis of malaria in Kumasi: Using ARIMA models to forecast future incidence

R Anokye, E Acheampong, I Owusu… - Cogent social …, 2018 - Taylor & Francis
Malaria is a disease caused by the Plasmodium genus that is transmitted between humans
by Anopheles mosquitoes. The study sought to assess the trends of Malaria incidence in …

A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) forecasting model to predict monthly malaria cases in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

O Ebhuoma, M Gebreslasie, L Magubane - South African medical journal, 2018 - ajol.info
Background. South Africa (SA) in general, and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Province in particular,
have stepped up efforts to eliminate malaria. To strengthen malaria control in KZN, a …

A Weather‐Based Prediction Model of Malaria Prevalence in Amenfi West District, Ghana

EL Darkoh, JA Larbi, EA Lawer - Malaria research and …, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
This study investigated the effects of climatic variables, particularly, rainfall and temperature,
on malaria incidence using time series analysis. Our preliminary analysis revealed that …

Models for short term malaria prediction in Sri Lanka

OJT Briët, P Vounatsou, DM Gunawardena… - Malaria Journal, 2008 - Springer
Abstract Background Malaria in Sri Lanka is unstable and fluctuates in intensity both
spatially and temporally. Although the case counts are dwindling at present, given the past …

Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997–2003

A Gomez-Elipe, A Otero, M Van Herp, A Aguirre-Jaime - Malaria Journal, 2007 - Springer
Background The objective of this work was to develop a model to predict malaria incidence
in an area of unstable transmission by studying the association between environmental …

Generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models for count data with application to malaria time series with low case numbers

OJT Briët, PH Amerasinghe, P Vounatsou - PloS one, 2013 - journals.plos.org
Introduction With the renewed drive towards malaria elimination, there is a need for
improved surveillance tools. While time series analysis is an important tool for surveillance …

A spatio-temporal analysis to identify the drivers of malaria transmission in Bhutan

K Wangdi, Z Xu, AT Suwannatrai, J Kurscheid, A Lal… - Scientific Reports, 2020 - nature.com
At a time when Bhutan is on the verge of malaria elimination, the aim of this study was to
identify malaria clusters at high geographical resolution and to determine its association with …