The application of predefined weather patterns over India within probabilistic medium‐range forecasting tools for high‐impact weather

R Neal, G Guentchev, T Arulalan… - Meteorological …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
A method is presented for deriving probabilistic medium‐range (1‐to‐2‐week) weather
pattern forecasts for India. This method uses an existing set of 30 objectively derived daily …

[HTML][HTML] Deriving optimal weather pattern definitions for the representation of precipitation variability over India

R Neal, J Robbins, R Dankers, A Mitra… - International Journal of …, 2020 - edepot.wur.nl
This study utilizes cluster analysis to produce sets of weather patterns for the Indian
subcontinent. These patterns have been developed with future applications in mind; …

Comparison of different global ensemble prediction systems for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting

D Lu, R Ding, J Mao, Q Zhong… - Atmospheric Science …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
Many meteorological centers have operationally implemented global model‐based
ensemble prediction systems (GEPSs), making tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from these …

Evaluating short-range forecasts of a 12 km global ensemble prediction system and a 4 km convection-permitting regional ensemble prediction system

A Mamgain, SK Prasad, A Sarkar, G Shanker… - Pure and Applied …, 2024 - Springer
Abstract Information regarding the uncertainty associated with weather forecasts, particularly
when they are related to a localized area at convective scales, can certainly play a crucial …

A comparison of two statistical postprocessing methods for heavy‐precipitation forecasts over India during the summer monsoon

M Angus, M Widmann, A Orr, R Ashrit… - Quarterly Journal of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
Accurate ensemble forecasts of heavy precipitation in India are vital for many applications
and essential for early warning of damaging flood events, especially during the monsoon …

Relative economic value of global ensemble prediction system of NCMRWF, India, for extreme weather events

G Shanker, A Sarkar, A Mamgain… - Quarterly Journal of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
An ensemble prediction system quantifies the uncertainty in the forecast by a numerical
weather prediction model and helps in decision‐making. The global ensemble prediction …

Grand ensemble forecasts verification based on two high resolution (∼ 12 km) global ensemble prediction systems

A Mamgain, A Sarkar, A Dube, V Abhijith… - Atmospheric …, 2024 - Elsevier
The primary objective of this study is to quantitatively assess the skill of grand-ensemble
forecasts generated from two high-resolution global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) …

Contribution of lagged members to the performance of a global ensemble prediction system

G Shanker, A Sarkar, A Mamgain, SK Prasad… - Atmospheric …, 2022 - Elsevier
Abstract National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India runs
operationally a global ensemble prediction system (NEPS-G) which has 23 ensemble …

[PDF][PDF] BCWC RESEARCH REPORT

S Bose, G Shanker, M Subba, MV Reddy, A Sarkar… - 2024 - ncmrwf.gov.in
Abstract Bhutan, a South Asian country located in the Eastern Himalayas, is an important
member of the Bay of Bengal Initiative of Multi–sectorial Technical and Economic …