This article reviews the literature on the econometric relationship between DSGE and VAR
models from the point of view of estimation and model validation. The mapping between …

Macroeconomists constructing conditional forecasts often face a choice between taking a
stand on the details of a fully-specified structural model or relying on correlations from VARs …

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel,
cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand …

The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We
investigate the dollar's role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a …

Spillovers from US monetary policy entail spillbacks to the domestic economy. Applying
counterfactual analyses in a Bayesian proxy structural vector-autoregressive model we find …

We use structural scenario analysis to show that the climate policy mix—supply-side versus
demand-side policies—can lead to different oil price paths with diverging distributional …

This paper constructs hybrid forecasts that combine forecasts from vector autoregressive
(VAR) model (s) with both short-and long-term expectations from surveys. Specifically, we …

Interest rates are very persistent. Modeling the persistent component of interest rates has
important consequence for forecasting. Factor models of the term structure are restricted …

This paper studies how to combine real-time forecasts from a broad range of Bayesian
vector autoregression (BVAR) specifications and survey forecasts by optimally exploiting …

This study examines whether central banks can combat inflation that is caused by rising
energy prices. By using a high-frequency event study and a Structural Vector …