We review the growing evidence for a widespread inconsistency between the low strength of
predictable signals in climate models and the relatively high level of agreement they exhibit …

A powerful influence on the weather that we experience on the ground can be exerted by the
stratosphere. This highly stratified layer of Earth's atmosphere is found 10 to 50 kilometres …

In this paper we describe SEAS5, ECMWF's fifth generation seasonal forecast system, which
became operational in November 2017. Compared to its predecessor, System 4, SEAS5 is a …

Are continuing changes in the Arctic influencing wind patterns and the occurrence of
extreme weather events in northern mid-latitudes? The chaotic nature of atmospheric …

The stratosphere can have a significant impact on winter surface weather on subseasonal to
seasonal (S2S) timescales. This study evaluates the ability of current operational S2S …

Abstract The winter North Atlantic Oscillation is the primary mode of atmospheric variability
in the North Atlantic region and has a profound influence on European and North American …

Skilful climate predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation out to
a few months ahead have recently been demonstrated, but the source of this predictability …

We investigate seasonal forecasts of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their
relationship with the stratosphere. Climatological frequencies of sudden stratospheric …

Abstract The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation is the primary mode of atmospheric
variability in the North Atlantic region and has a significant influence on regional European …

Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of
stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere …