This article surveys recent research on the usefulness of the term spread (ie, the difference
between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) for predicting changes …

In this chapter we provide a guide for the construction, use and evaluation of leading
indicators, and an assessment of the most relevant recent developments in this field of …

The global financial crisis has made it painfully clear that powerful psychological forces are
imperiling the wealth of nations today. From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to …

Are asset prices useful predictors of inflation and real output growth? After reviewing the
large literature on this topic, we undertake an empirical analysis of quarterly data for seven …

The framework of Geweke (1982. Journal of the American Statistical Association 77, 304–
324.) and Hosoya (1991. Probability Theory and Related Fields 88, 429–444.) is adopted to …

This paper revisits the yield spread's usefulness for predicting future real GDP growth. We
show that the contribution of the spread can be decomposed into the effect of expected …

Empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the
slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation. Some of these …

In this paper, various financial variables are examined as predictors of the probability of a
recession in the USA and Germany. We propose a new dynamic probit model that …

This paper studies the informational content of the slope of the yield curve as a predictor of
recessions in the euro area and provides evidence of the potential usefulness of this …

In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the yield curve (or alternatively, the term
premium) as a predictor of future economic activity. In this article, we re‐examine the …