Forecasting with option-implied information

P Christoffersen, K Jacobs, BY Chang - Handbook of economic forecasting, 2013 - Elsevier
This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting information from option prices that
can be used in forecasting. We consider option-implied volatilities, skewness, kurtosis, and …

Time-changed Lévy processes and option pricing

P Carr, L Wu - Journal of Financial economics, 2004 - Elsevier
The classic Black-Scholes option pricing model assumes that returns follow Brownian
motion, but return processes differ from this benchmark in at least three important ways. First …

The shape and term structure of the index option smirk: Why multifactor stochastic volatility models work so well

P Christoffersen, S Heston… - Management Science, 2009 - pubsonline.informs.org
State-of-the-art stochastic volatility models generate a “volatility smirk” that explains why out-
of-the-money index puts have high prices relative to the Black-Scholes benchmark. These …

Model specification and risk premia: Evidence from futures options

M Broadie, M Chernov, M Johannes - The Journal of Finance, 2007 - Wiley Online Library
This paper examines model specification issues and estimates diffusive and jump risk
premia using S&P futures option prices from 1987 to 2003. We first develop a time series test …

Capturing option anomalies with a variance-dependent pricing kernel

P Christoffersen, S Heston… - The Review of Financial …, 2013 - academic.oup.com
We develop a GARCH option model with a new pricing kernel allowing for a variance
premium. While the pricing kernel is monotonic in the stock return and in variance, its …

Stochastic skew in currency options

P Carr, L Wu - Journal of Financial Economics, 2007 - Elsevier
We analyze the behavior of over-the-counter currency option prices across moneyness,
maturity, and calendar time on two of the most actively traded currency pairs over the past …

Option valuation with long-run and short-run volatility components

P Christoffersen, K Jacobs, C Ornthanalai… - Journal of Financial …, 2008 - Elsevier
This paper presents a new model for the valuation of European options, in which the
volatility of returns consists of two components. One is a long-run component and can be …

Volatility dynamics for the S&P500: Evidence from realized volatility, daily returns, and option prices

P Christoffersen, K Jacobs… - The Review of Financial …, 2010 - academic.oup.com
Most recent empirical option valuation studies build on the affine square root (SQR)
stochastic volatility model. The SQR model is a convenient choice, because it yields closed …

What type of process underlies options? A simple robust test

P Carr, L Wu - The Journal of Finance, 2003 - Wiley Online Library
We develop a simple robust method to distinguish the presence of continuous and
discontinuous components in the price of an asset underlying options. Our method …

Maximum likelihood estimation of latent affine processes

DS Bates - The Review of Financial Studies, 2006 - academic.oup.com
This article develops a direct filtration-based maximum likelihood methodology for
estimating the parameters and realizations of latent affine processes. Filtration is conducted …