This paper develops a model where voters trade-off two different motives when deciding
how to vote: they care about current decision-making (they are “strategic”), but they also care …

In this paper we examine the extent to which voters engage in strategic behavior. Our
contribution is accounting for the context in which voters have the opportunity to behave in a …

This paper explores whether Democratic voters emphasize different traits when evaluating
potential party nominees than do Republican voters. Using data obtained from the only two …

Politicians, campaign staffers and media elites, among others, spend months in every
election cycle trying to identify what voters want and how they make decisions. In general …

This paper analyzes individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 US
presidential election. Employing an original survey of more than 19,000 respondents, ours is …