[HTML][HTML] Forecasting: theory and practice

F Petropoulos, D Apiletti, V Assimakopoulos… - International Journal of …, 2022 - Elsevier
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …

Forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics

U Gunter, I Önder - Annals of Tourism Research, 2016 - Elsevier
Abstract The ability of 10 Google Analytics website traffic indicators from the Viennese DMO
website to predict actual tourist arrivals to Vienna is investigated within the VAR model class …

Financial frictions in the Euro Area and the United States: a Bayesian assessment

S Villa - Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2016 - cambridge.org
This paper assesses the empirical relevance of financial frictions in the Euro Area (EA) and
the United States (US). It provides a comprehensive set of comparisons between two …

Forecasting US GNP growth: The role of uncertainty

M Segnon, R Gupta, S Bekiros… - Journal of …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
A large number of models have been developed in the literature to analyze and forecast
changes in output dynamics. The objective of this paper was to compare the predictive …

Application of the Bayesian New Keynesian DSGE Model to Polish Macroeconomic Data

J Sobieraj, D Metelski - Engineering Economics, 2021 - inzeko.ktu.lt
In the paper we estimate a simple New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
NK DSGE model on the basis of Polish macro data from the period 2000-2019. The model is …

Forecast heuristics, consumer expectations, and New-Keynesian macroeconomics: A Horse race

TS Jang, S Sacht - Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2021 - Elsevier
This study extends the hybrid version of the baseline New-Keynesian model with
heterogeneous agents who may adopt various forecast heuristics. With a focus on consumer …

Disentangling civilian and military spending shocks: A Bayesian DSGE approach for the US economy

M Lorusso, L Pieroni - Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2019 - mdpi.com
In this paper, we disentangle public spending components in order analyse their effects on
the US economy. Our Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) model …

Fiscal policy within the DSGE-VAR framework

J Babecký, M Franta, J Ryšánek - Economic Modelling, 2018 - Elsevier
In this paper we explore the potential of the DSGE-VAR modelling approach for examining
the effects of fiscal policy. The combination of the VAR and DSGE frameworks leads …

Limited asset market participation and the Euro area crisis: An empirical DSGE model

A Albonico, A Paccagnini, P Tirelli - Economic Inquiry, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
We estimate a medium‐scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Euro
area with limited asset market participation (LAMP). Our results suggest that in the recent …

Bayesian forecast combination in VAR-DSGE models

KH Chin, X Li - Journal of Macroeconomics, 2019 - Elsevier
We evaluate the performance of individual and combination forecasts produced by Bayesian
vector autoregressions (Bayesian VARs) with economic and/or non-economic information. In …