This article surveys recent research on the usefulness of the term spread (ie, the difference
between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) for predicting changes …

The objective of this paper is to improve the accuracy of financial and monetary forecasts of
Canadian output growth by using leading indicator neural network models. We find that …

In the process of formulating and implementing monetary policy, central banks focus on a
series of variables, ranging from the ultimate target of policy, at one end, to the instrument of …

Financial Conditions Indexes for Canada Page 1 Bank of Canada Banque du Canada Working
Paper 2004-22 / Document de travail 2004-22 Financial Conditions Indexes for Canada by …

The difference in yields between long-term and short-term securities has been used both as
a business cycle leading indicator and as an indicator of the direction of monetary policy …

This paper examines price discovery for four sectors of the Hong Kong property market. The
Hong Kong property market is one of the deepest and most liquid markets in the world. In …

This paper examines the feasibility of using the term structure of nominal interest rates in
empirical predictive relationships with future real activity growth serving as the dependent …

ABSTRACT The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model, QPM, combines the
short-term dynamic properties necessary to support regular economic projections with the …

In this comment on Fortin (1996a), we argue that the sluggishness in economic activity in
Canada in the 1990s is better explained by a combination of factors than by monetary policy …

This paper examines the ability of a number of financial variables to predict Canadian
recessions. Regarding methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by Estrella …