As the world's first decentralized digital currency, Bitcoin has the potential to revolutionize
online payments systems in a way that benefits consumers and businesses. Instead of using …

In this landmark book, Scott Page redefines the way we understand ourselves in relation to
one another. The Difference is about how we think in groups--and how our collective …

We analyze the extent to which simple markets can be used to aggregate disperse
information into efficient forecasts of uncertain future events. Drawing together data from a …

Information revelation through time. Data are from the Iowa Electronic Markets for markets
predicting the two-party vote shares from the 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000 presidential …

Abstract Information markets are markets created to aggregate information. Such markets
usually estimate a probability distribution over the values of certain variables, via bets on …

Is the involvement of stars critical to the success of motion pictures? Film studios, which
regularly pay multimillion-dollar fees to stars, seem to be driven by that belief. This article …

“Prediction markets” are designed specifically to forecast events such as elections. Though
election prediction markets have been being conducted for almost twenty years, to date …

The accuracy of prediction markets has been documented both for markets based on real
money and those based on play money. To test how much extra accuracy can be obtained …

Valuations from “prediction markets” reveal expectations about the likelihood of
events.“Conditional prediction markets” reveal expectations conditional on other events …

Here we test the feasibility of using decision markets to select studies for replication and
provide evidence about the replicability of online experiments. Social scientists (n= 162) …