To reduce the consequences of infectious disease outbreaks, the timely implementation of
public health measures is crucial. Currently used early-warning systems are highly context …

Many real-world systems can exhibit tipping points and multiple stable states, creating the
potential for sudden and difficult to reverse transitions into a less desirable regime. The …

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to affect the world, and the design of
strategies to curb disease outbreaks requires close monitoring of their trajectories. We …

Background Epidemic waves of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections have often
been associated with the emergence of novel severe acute respiratory syndrome …

Developing measures for rapid and early detection of disease re-emergence is important to
perform science-based risk assessment of epidemic threats. In the past few years, several …

Early warnings signs (EWSs) can anticipate abrupt changes in system state, known as
“critical transitions,” by detecting dynamic variations, including increases in variance …

Abstract Early Warning Signals (EWS) have generated much excitement for their potential to
anticipate transitions in various systems, ranging from climate change in ecology to disease …

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many quantitative approaches were employed to predict
the course of disease spread. However, forecasting faces the challenge of inherently …

Forecasting the occurrence and absence of novel disease outbreaks is essential for disease
management. Here, we develop a general model, with no real-world training data, that …

Many countries have manifested COVID-19 trajectories where extended periods of constant
and low daily case rate suddenly transition to epidemic waves of considerable severity with …