[HTML][HTML] Forecasting: theory and practice

F Petropoulos, D Apiletti, V Assimakopoulos… - International Journal of …, 2022 - Elsevier
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …

Forecasting mid-long term electric energy consumption through bagging ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods

EM de Oliveira, FLC Oliveira - Energy, 2018 - Elsevier
In the last decades, the world's energy consumption has increased rapidly due to
fundamental changes in the industry and economy. In such terms, accurate demand …

Forecasting across time series databases using recurrent neural networks on groups of similar series: A clustering approach

K Bandara, C Bergmeir, S Smyl - Expert systems with applications, 2020 - Elsevier
With the advent of Big Data, nowadays in many applications databases containing large
quantities of similar time series are available. Forecasting time series in these domains with …

Making the whole greater than the sum of its parts: A literature review of ensemble methods for financial time series forecasting

PHM Albuquerque, Y Peng, JPF Silva - Journal of Forecasting, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
This paper discusses the application of ensemble techniques for the prediction of time
series, presenting an in‐depth review of the main techniques and algorithms used by the …

Bagging exponential smoothing methods using STL decomposition and Box–Cox transformation

C Bergmeir, RJ Hyndman, JM Benítez - International journal of forecasting, 2016 - Elsevier
Exponential smoothing is one of the most popular forecasting methods. We present a
technique for the bootstrap aggregation (bagging) of exponential smoothing methods, which …

Exploring the sources of uncertainty: Why does bagging for time series forecasting work?

F Petropoulos, RJ Hyndman, C Bergmeir - European Journal of Operational …, 2018 - Elsevier
In a recent study, Bergmeir, Hyndman and Benítez (2016) successfully employed a
bootstrap aggregation (bagging) technique for improving the performance of exponential …

Machine learning vs statistical methods for time series forecasting: Size matters

V Cerqueira, L Torgo, C Soares - arXiv preprint arXiv:1909.13316, 2019 - arxiv.org
Time series forecasting is one of the most active research topics. Machine learning methods
have been increasingly adopted to solve these predictive tasks. However, in a recent work …

Price-taker bidding strategy under price uncertainty

AJ Conejo, FJ Nogales… - IEEE Transactions on …, 2002 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
This paper provides a framework to obtain the optimal bidding strategy of a price-taker
producer. An appropriate forecasting tool is used to estimate the probability density functions …

Forecasting hotel demand for revenue management using machine learning regression methods

LN Pereira, V Cerqueira - Current Issues in Tourism, 2022 - Taylor & Francis
This paper compares the accuracy of a set of 22 methods for short-term hotel demand
forecasting for lead times up to 14 days ahead. Machine learning models are compared with …

Predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation using automatic time series forecasting methods

G Papacharalampous, H Tyralis, D Koutsoyiannis - Acta Geophysica, 2018 - Springer
We investigate the predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation by applying
automatic univariate time series forecasting methods to a sample of 985 40-year-long …