Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions

L Mizrahi, I Dallo, NJ van der Elst… - Reviews of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible,
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …

A review of 15 years of public earthquake forecasting in Aotearoa New Zealand

MC Gerstenberger… - Seismological …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
New Zealand entered a period of increased seismic activity in 2003, which, to date, has
included around 20 large or damaging earthquakes. Building on decades of forecast model …

One neuron versus deep learning in aftershock prediction

A Mignan, M Broccardo - Nature, 2019 - nature.com
Forecasting the spatial distribution of aftershocks in the aftermath of large seismic events is
of great importance for improving both our understanding of earthquake triggering and post …

Improving physics‐based aftershock forecasts during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade

S Mancini, M Segou, MJ Werner… - Journal of Geophysical …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The 2016–2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence is a recent example of
how damages from subsequent aftershocks can exceed those caused by the initial …

Stress transfer from opening hydraulic fractures controls the distribution of induced seismicity

T Kettlety, JP Verdon, MJ Werner… - Journal of Geophysical …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Understanding the dominant physical processes that cause fault reactivation due to fluid
injection is vital to develop strategies to avoid and mitigate injection‐induced seismicity …

Panel review of the USGS 2023 conterminous US time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast

TH Jordan, N Abrahamson… - Bulletin of the …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
This report documents the assessment by the US Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake
Rupture Forecast (ERF) Review Panel of the draft ERF for the conterminous United States …

suiETAS: Developing and testing ETAS‐based earthquake forecasting models for Switzerland

L Mizrahi, S Nandan… - Bulletin of the …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
We present the development and testing of multiple epidemic‐type aftershock sequence
(ETAS)‐based earthquake forecasting models for Switzerland, aiming to identify suitable …

Pseudoprospective evaluation of UCERF3‐ETAS forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence

WH Savran, MJ Werner… - Bulletin of the …, 2020 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
The 2019 Ridgecrest sequence provides the first opportunity to evaluate Uniform California
Earthquake Rupture Forecast v. 3 with epidemic‐type aftershock sequences (UCERF3 …

The predictive skills of elastic Coulomb rate‐and‐state aftershock forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence

S Mancini, M Segou, MJ Werner… - Bulletin of the …, 2020 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Operational earthquake forecasting protocols commonly use statistical models for their
recognized ease of implementation and robustness in describing the short‐term …

A software tool for hybrid earthquake forecasting in New Zealand

KM Graham, A Christophersen… - Seismological …, 2024 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Earthquake forecasts estimate the likelihood of seismic activity within a specific region over
a given timeframe, utilizing historical data and patterns from past earthquakes. In New …