The recent financial crisis and ensuing recession appear to have put the productive capacity
of the economy on a lower and shallower trajectory than the one that seemed to be in place …

We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of US states using newly
constructed state-level price indices for nontradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates …

This paper studies the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on
the US economy. Three measures of TPU are constructed using newspaper coverage, firms' …

US estimates of the natural rate of interest–the real short-term interest rate that would prevail
absent transitory disturbances–have declined dramatically since the start of the global …

This paper argues for a careful (re) consideration of the expectations formation process and
a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic …

Why are interest rates so low in the Unites States? We find that they are low primarily
because the premium for safety and liquidity has increased since the late 1990s, and to a …

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Page 1 Page 2 The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level john h.
cochrane princeton university press princeton and oxford Page 3 Copyright c 2023 by …

We examine the hypothesis that the slowdown in productivity following the Great Recession
was in significant part an endogenous response to the contraction in demand that induced …

Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that inflation follows a seemingly
exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the …

The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they
always did. Witness the Great Recession. Inflation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This …